“The power of intuition is undeniable. So is its potential for error.” “many examples of successful intuitive behavior are just due to expertise. If you are a highly-trained professional, say, an expert on detecting forgeries in classical art, your brain has been exposed to a lot of relevant information and has internalized a series of subtle associations to the point that they are not even conscious anymore. The result might be described as ‘intuition,’ but it is really expertise. But if you are not an expert in a field, your intuition is untrained and will serve you poorly there. So, should you trust your gut? Only if you are an expert, or if the decision is not particularly important. In any other cases, stop, think, and gather data.”—”The Dangers of Intuition. Gut instincts can provide useful shortcuts, but they can also be misleading. Intuition relies on simple associations that save cognitive resources. Those associations are useful in stable environments, but can be dangerous in our complex, fast-changing world. Repeating successful behaviors, following familiar paths, or searching for simple patterns are all cognitive shortcuts that might breed disaster.”